AQUILA’s Austin Multifamily Market Report

Austin Multifamily Submarket Map

Austin Quarterly Multifamily Market Stats

After a period of remarkable rent growth, the multifamily market in Austin appears to be reaching a point of stability. The city-wide asking rates have seen a growth of 2.04% from 3Q 2021 to 1Q 2023, and the Asking Rate/SF has increased by 4.37% during the same period. This is a significant shift from the impressive 7.8% growth observed from 3Q 2021 to 2Q 2022. While some may interpret this slowdown as cause for concern, we view it as a healthy stabilization following an unsustainable period of rent growth.

On another note, it’s worth mentioning that vacancy rates seem to be on an upward trend, reaching around 11%. However, this figure does not account for units currently in the Lease-Up stage or those that have been recently delivered. Concurrently, absorption rates have shown a quarter-over-quarter increase, aligning with the rates seen in 2021.

Despite the apparent contraction, we believe Austin’s multifamily market is simply adjusting to a new wave of supply and stabilizing from the dramatic boom instigated by COVID-19 impacts. This is a likely transition from an unusual period of rapid growth to a more sustainable pace.

Austin Multifamily Development Pipeline

As part of our ongoing effort to be the best source for market research in the Austin commercial real estate market, we have compiled the below interactive chart to showcase today’s most relevant multifamily market statistics.

Use the chart below to toggle between variables and see how the most notable multifamily markets in the United States Compare. These calculations are an estimation, please contact us with any specific questions.

The chart in the previous chapter includes a comprehensive analysis of key factors such as population growth, household income growth, rent growth, rent affordability, and recession resilience. This data can provide valuable insights into the most promising markets.

In this write-up, we present the top 10 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) for commercial real estate investments based on these critical indicators.

1. Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX

Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown is our top pick for commercial real estate investments. This rapidly growing Texan city boasts impressive population growth, strong income growth, and a resilient economy that has weathered past recessions well. Its flourishing tech and innovation sectors have driven significant demand for office, retail, and industrial spaces.

2. Raleigh-Cary, NC

The Raleigh-Cary MSA offers lucrative opportunities for commercial real estate investors. With robust population growth, a highly educated workforce, and strong income growth, this region has become a hub for research, technology, and innovation. This thriving market presents promising prospects for various commercial real estate segments.

3. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta ranks third on our list, thanks to its remarkable population growth and household income growth. The city’s diverse industries, including film, entertainment, and technology, attract a wide range of businesses and residents, driving demand for commercial spaces across multiple sectors.

4. Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX (MSAD)

Dallas-Plano-Irving is another Texan city offering excellent commercial real estate investment opportunities. With substantial population and income growth, the city’s diverse economy, which encompasses healthcare, technology, and finance sectors, ensures a steady demand for commercial properties.

5. Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia is a lucrative market for commercial real estate investors, thanks to its booming financial sector, which contributes to its growth and prosperity. Significant population and income growth make this city an attractive location for businesses, driving demand for office, retail, and industrial spaces.

6. Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler is another attractive market for commercial real estate investors. The city’s significant population growth and consistent income growth create a favorable environment for businesses. Furthermore, the city’s affordable rents and diverse economy, spanning industries such as aerospace, healthcare, and technology, make it an appealing location for commercial property investments.

7. Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood ranks seventh on our list due to its strong population growth and income growth. The region’s thriving economy is driven by energy, aerospace, and technology industries. These factors, combined with its beautiful scenery and outdoor attractions, make it a desirable place for businesses and residents, fueling demand for commercial real estate.

8. Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN

The Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin MSA offers ample opportunities for commercial real estate investors. Known as “Music City,” Nashville has a diverse economy that includes tourism, healthcare, and technology sectors. With solid population growth and income growth, the city’s commercial real estate market has great potential for investors.

9. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford is a popular tourist destination, attracting millions of visitors each year. As a result, the city’s economy thrives on tourism, hospitality, and entertainment industries. Its notable population and income growth also contribute to the rising demand for commercial real estate, making it an ideal market for investors.

10. Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

Rounding out our top 10 is the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue MSA. Known for its thriving technology sector, this metropolitan area has experienced considerable population growth and income growth. With major tech companies like Amazon and Microsoft headquartered in the region, the demand for commercial real estate, especially office space, remains strong.

Multifamily real estate has become a popular topic in recent years, especially following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Before AQUILA’s research team starts to dig deep into the world of multifamily data, we thought it would be pertinent to use this inaugural multifamily special report to help set the stage. In this quarter’s special report, we compare Austin’s multifamily market to other major U.S. markets by taking a look at the following:

• Market size and growth
• Vacancy and rental rates
• A demographic overview

Methodology

% Office Jobs

The volume of office jobs as a percentage of total jobs in each MSA. Office Jobs were defined as:

• Information
• Finance & Insurance
• Real Estate & Rental & Leasing
• Professional & Scientific & Technical Services
• Management of Companies & Enterprises

Educational Attainment

The percentage of the population in each MSA with a Bachelor’s degree or greater.

Household Income 2-Year Growth

The total growth on a percentage basis of median household income in each MSA

Office Job % 2-Year Growth

The total change on a percentage basis of office jobs in each MSA over the past 2 years.

Population 2-Year Growth

Population growth on a percentage basis for each MSA over the last 2 years.

Rent 10-Year Growth

The total growth of average asking rental rates for each MSA over the last 10 years.

Rent Affordability

Chunk rent versus median family income.

Rent Affordability 2-Year % Change

The percentage change in rent affordability over the last 2 years.

Rent to Buy

The cost to own (mortgage + taxes) versus average asking rents 

Vacancy 10-Year Average

The average vacancy rate over the last 10 years for each MSA.